Semaglutide Expiry Opens Rs 50-Bn Boost for Indian Pharma

The impending patent expiry of semaglutide drugs across India, emerging markets and select regulated markets such as Canada and Brazil is expected to unlock a revenue opportunity of more than Rs 50 billion for generic pharmaceutical companies over the next 12 to 15 months, according to an industry update by Systematix Institutional Research.

The report said the opportunity is likely to be shared among 10 to 15 Indian and global generic players. For FY27, incremental revenues are estimated at Rs 10–20 billion from India’s branded formulations market, around Rs 45 billion from regulated markets including Canada and Brazil, and about Rs 5–10 billion from emerging markets.

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Analysts cautioned that while regulated markets could deliver a sharp near-term boost, the upside may moderate over time due to pricing pressure and rising competition.

In India, the launch of generic semaglutide, expected in the first quarter of FY27, is projected to lift overall Indian Pharmaceutical Market growth by 0.5–1%, reported by ANI. Prices are expected to be 30–50% lower initially compared with current levels, with deeper cuts of up to 70–75% over time, significantly accelerating the adoption of GLP-1 therapies among diabetic patients.

Market leadership in the GLP-1 segment is expected to remain concentrated among five to ten players. Alkem Laboratories, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Pharma have secured regulatory approvals in India, while other companies await clearances. Zydus Lifesciences is pursuing a differentiated injectable version, potentially offering a competitive edge globally.