Merck Targets $5B Boost With Cidara's Flu Drug Breakthrough

Merck is placing a bold bet on Cidara’s experimental flu drug, expecting more than $5 billion in commercial potential as it moves to acquire the biotech firm for roughly $9.2 billion.

The merger would provide Merck with CD388, a strain-independent, long-acting antiviral that is not a vaccine and which may provide one-dose coverage against all flu strains.

CD388 is currently in late stage (Phase 3) trials through the ANCHOR study. The target population of the study is those people who are at a considerable risk of the complications of influenza, i.e. the elderly or people with a weak immune system.

The FDA of the U.S. gave CD388 a Breakthrough Therapy designation because of encouraging early results, a tether that expedited drug development.

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Merck projects that approximately 110 million Americans would be covered by CD388, and approximately 85 million would be high-risk. The company will produce the drug in a facility in the U.S. in order to help in supply in the long-term.

On the financial side, Merck anticipates that this acquisition will decrease its earnings by approximately 30cents per share in the initial year due to the development and financing expenses. The firms expect the deal to be finalized in the first half of 2026 provided that it gets regulatory approvals.

The action concurs with the trend of Merck to diversify its pipeline because its blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda is on the verge of patent expiry. The move also empowers Merck respiratory portfolio with CD388 serving as a potential long-term growth engine to the company.